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"A New Perspective on Electronic Product Reliability: Prognostics and Health Management" -- Prof. Michael Pecht, Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE), University of Maryland

Presentation Slides: "A New Perspective on Electronic Product Reliability" (1.6 MB PDF)

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

  • Seated dinner served at 6:30 ($25 if reserved by April 6; $30 after & at door; vegetarian available)

  • Presentation (no cost) at 7:30.

    Ramada Inn

  • 1217 Wildwood Ave (Fwy 101 frontage road, between Lawrence Expressway and Great America Parkway), Sunnyvale, (800) 888-3899 -- see map.


  • For dinner and/or meeting: by email to Janis Karklins
  • Please reserve for "presentation-only", even if not attending the dinner.

    Reliability is the ability of a product or system to perform as intended (i.e., without failure and within specified performance limits) for a specified time, in its life-cycle environment. It is now well known that the handbook electronics reliability prediction methods (Mil-Hdbk-217, 217-Plus, Bellcore/ Telcordia, PRISM, FIDES, SAE) are misleading and provide erroneous life predictions, a fact that led the U.S. military and many commercial companies to abandon these electronics reliability prediction methods. Although the use of stress and damage models permits a more accurate result, their application to long-term reliability predictions based on extrapolated short-term life testing data or field data, is typically constrained by insufficient knowledge of the actual operating and environmental application conditions of the product. This also affects the cost-effective and efficient application of accelerated test methods.

    Prognostics and health management is a method that permits the assessment of the reliability of a system under its actual application conditions. It integrates sensor data with models that enable in-situ assessment of the deviation or degradation of a product from an expected normal operating condition (i.e., the system’s “health”) and also predicts the future state of reliability based on current and historic conditions.

    The Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering (CALCE) at the University Of Maryland has an established Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) Consortium to provide basic research and technology to members. Different prognostics approaches that have been assessed by CALCE PHM include: the use of expendable devices, such as ‘canaries’ and fuses that fail earlier than the host product to provide advance warning of failure; the monitoring and reasoning of parameters that are precursors to impending failure, such as shifts in performance parameters; and the modeling of stress and damage utilizing life cycle loads (e.g., usage, temperature, vibration, radiation). Examples of implementation methods and results are given.

    Speaker Biography:
    Michael Pecht has a BS in Acoustics, an MS in Electrical Engineering and an MS and PhD in Engineering Mechanics from the University of Wisconsin at Madison. He is a Professional Engineer, an IEEE Fellow and an ASME Fellow. He has received the IEEE Reliability Lifetime Achievement Award, the IEEE Undergraduate Teaching Award, the IMAPS William D. Ashman Memorial Achievement Award for his contributions in electronics reliability analysis, and the 3M Research Award for electronics packaging. He has written over 20 books on electronic products development, reliability, use and supply chain management. He served as chief editor of the IEEE Transactions on Reliability for eight years and on the advisory board of IEEE Spectrum. He is chief editor for Microelectronics Reliability and an associate editor for the IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technology. He is the founder of CALCE (Center for Advanced Life Cycle Engineering) and the Electronic Products and Systems Consortium at the University of Maryland. He is also a Chair Professor.

    He has been leading a research team in the area of prognostics for the past six years, and has now formed a new Electronics Prognostics and Health Management Consortium at the University of Maryland. He has consulted for over 100 major international electronics companies, providing expertise in strategic planning, design, test, prognostics, IP and risk assessment of electronic products and systems.

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